The Patriots Should Take a Dive for the Home Team … America

I’m a sports fan. I’ll watch anything competitive, except chess and poker. I root for the home team, but if I don’t have a team in the fight, I’ll pull for the underdog. Even though Los Angeles hasn’t had a football team since Al Davis skulked back to Oakland, I’ve always been a 49ers fan. It doesn’t matter whether John Brody or Joe Montana were slinging hash, the Niners have always been my boys. That being said, I approach Sunday’s contest not so much as a fan, but as an American patriot.

Each year, economists have observed the phenomenon known as the “Super Bowl Effect.” This occurrence has little to do with the pre-game spike in big screen TV purchases or the annual upswing in nacho cheese sales. It has nothing to do with multi-million dollar economic impact the contest has on the host city. Even though the sales of cholesterol inhibitors generally rise following our national day of gluttony, this not the effect economists track. Rather, history has demonstrated that if an AFC teams wins, the economy dips and if an NFC team prevails, the markets climb. (Luckily for me, the 49ers play for the NFC.)

The empirical evidence of this singularity is difficult to refute. During the 1970's and early 1980's when the AFC dominated, and the economy was weak. As the balance of power shifted to the NFC (thanks in large measure to my 49ers), the economy staged a remarkable recovery. Now with the return to preeminence of AFC teams such as the Ravens, Patriots, Steelers and Colts, the economy has plunged.

Econometrics specialist and self-confessed nerd Mike Moffatt conducted a statistical study to determine if there was any truth to the myth. Moffatt looked at the result of the last 39 Super Bowls. From his research, he concluded that there is a statistically significant correlation between the Super Bowl result and economic growth. For those of you that are mathematically inclined, Moffatt demonstrated that there was a .074963 correlation between an NFC victory and economic growth.

The “Brady” bunch may have a date with destiny, but their pursuit of a perfect season puts them on a collision course with our economy. Patriot owner Bob Kraft is no one’s fool. He’s a Columbia graduate and holds an MBA from Harvard. Kraft made his fortune as a captain of industry and through savvy investments. Pride may propel him to push his Patriots to historic heights. But at what cost to himself and our economy. As our nation tips towards a recession, Kraft of all people should see the bigger picture.

Bob, before the game, take Bill Bellichek aside, show him the stats. He’s a bright guy. If need be, offer him a bonus if he ditches his playbook. You can always write it off your taxes. Send a memo to Tom Brady telling him that the venue for the game has been switched from Glendale, Arizona to Glendale, California. Whisper to Randy Moss that he’s been traded for Terrell Owens. Drop the word that you think Rodney Harrison and Junior Seau should be put out to pasture.

Your bottom line and ours, depends on your willingness to trade your vanity for true patriotism. Despite the recent referee scandals plaguing the NBA, I assure you the Justice Department will look the other way. Come on Bob ... Take one for the home team ... America.

GO GIANTS!

To learn more about my market recommendations, visit my website at:www.globewestfinancial.com.